This says it all:

This year, Webb beat Allen by 116,000 votes and 17 points in the region. About half of that margin came from Fairfax County, the state’s biggest place and an important symbol of the change in the state’s politics.

“Fairfax used to be the bellwether for the state,” Brodnitz said. “Now it’s considered a critical piece of the Democratic map.”

And should the exurbs around Fairfax go decisively for the Democrats in future elections (Webb carried Loudoun 50-49 and Prince William 51-48), the GOP will become less and less competitive. Now is the time for rainbow conservatism and stem the Democratic tide in the exurbs that are growing in money and votes.

It turns out, I was optimistic yesterday in my prognostication, but only by a little. It looks likely Sen. Allen will lose to Jim Webb, and Sen. Burns of Montana will lose to Tester. Thus the Democrats will also take control of the Senate in addition to the House.

Clearly, the election was not a victory for leftism in the United States. That leaves two explanations for the result, which are not necessarily mutually exclusive. One theory holds that the GOP went too polar to the right and conceded the center (h/t RCP):

“The story line really is that the Democrats are winning the middle,” said Democratic pollster Al Quinlan.

Veteran GOP pollster Bill McInturff said: “Iraq is front and center of this election, and people voted for change. The GOP base held — was motivated and voted — but the margins among independents and moderates [for Democrats] was too much to overcome.”

The other theory is that Republicans were not conservative enough and became like Democrats, a party of establishment power, big government and etc. (h/t RCP):

In assessing last night’s results it is important to note that it was not a defeat for conservatism; it was a defeat for Republicanism, or at least, what Republicanism has come to represent. In the past 12 years, Republicans went from the party that promised “the end of government that is too big, too intrusive, and too easy with the public’s money” to the party of the Bridge to Nowhere; it took control of Congress on a pledge to “end its cycle of scandal and disgrace” and went down in defeat as the party of Tom DeLay and Mark Foley.

Having abandoned its core principles, the Republican Party had nothing to run on this year, so its campaign strategy centered on attacking Nancy Pelosi — a questionable tactic given that, according to some polls, more than half of the country had never even heard of her.

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My latest Seattle Times op-ed is online:

It has been about a year since I left Seattle for a Northern Virginia exurb in a fit of political angst, and the time allows for a bit of measured reflection about the change.

When I lived in Seattle, one of the city’s facets to which I quickly grew accustomed was the integration of Asian Americans into the city’s mainstream life. This was not surprising, of course. While Seattle does not boast a large number of Asians in absolute terms, they form the largest nonwhite population at over 13 percent of the total — a rarity outside Hawaii. [Snip]

Some of the same dynamics are at work in the fast-growing exurbs of Northern Virginia where I now live. The area has had explosive growth in the past several years, fueled by a strong economy, especially in the tech sector and the defense industry, as well as a business-friendly regulatory environment. What was once a sleepy rural area (perhaps akin to the outer Eastside of the Seattle area) now boasts affluent, ethnically diverse communities. [Snip]

The city’s life is overwhelmingly dominated by the industry of politics, which, unlike information technology, is an old business. It requires, by nature, discretion and even secrecy. Where trust and loyalty are at such a high premium, nepotism and clannishness are often rational responses, given that family and friends are generally more trustworthy than outsiders, however capable or intelligent.

Thus, it is not that there is significant racism against Asians. It is, rather, that the system erects a high barrier against late entrants, and Asian Americans tend to be late arrivals, particularly in political terms (a friend familiar with the entertainment industry observed something similar, and perhaps not coincidentally, politics is said to be show business for ugly people).

Read the whole thing here.

There is an excellent article today in The Christian Science Monitor about the differences between the Democrats and Republicans at the grassroots level (h/t RealClearPolitics):

The Democratic and Republican parties cultivate the grass roots quite differently. The GOP promotes its causes through naturally occurring community groups of like-minded people, such as conservative churches and pro-business associations. Democrats, however, often outsource their politics, relying on artificial, virtual networks and professional canvassers to evangelize their message and build their party.

That’s particularly ironic, because many Democrats oppose corporate outsourcing. There is nothing inherently wrong with their strategy; it is a successful method of contacting voters and bringing in money. But the repeated experience of painful losses on Election Day suggests it’s a flawed approach that’s hurting Democrats over the long term.

The Democratic Party and left-leaning political groups rely on outside organizations to hire young people who recruit members, collect funds, and contact constituents through quota-based pay systems. Since many hires don’t have strong ties to the places where they work, this approach to gaining support and getting out the vote fails to capitalize on existing personal bonds among like-minded Democrats.

These observations are right on the mark — as of today. In the past, the left, particularly communist and socialist groups, excelled at what is today called grassroots organization. Despite their flawed, and later clearly disproven, ideology, they continued to attract passionate members. Indeed, the very term “communist cell” evokes the organic, grassroots nature of their organizations (everyone involved in politics should read, for example, Mao Zedong’s “On Guerilla Warfare,” masterfully translated by Samuel Griffith; unlike poseurs like Che Guevara, Mao actually led a peasant communist organization to total victory in a long, difficult war and won power).

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A Harvard graduate student, also a mother, laments the anti-natalist environment that is Cambridge, Mass.

I was amused by the piece. Having lived in blue urban areas like NYC and Seattle (where dogs outnumber kids), I can understand the sense of isolation a “normal” person experiences in them. But I also lived in Iowa where I saw nothing except cows, pigs and children… lots of them.

And one does not need to go that far. Right here in Loudoun County where I live, pro-natalist sentiment rules. There are births galore in my neighborhood (in fact, three pregnancies in the past year in my small block alone). Maybe, just maybe, the fertile shall inherit the earth, eh?

As I often repeat, Northern Virginia has experienced a tremendous demographic growth, particularly in the outer suburbs and the exurbs. An accompanying trend has been an increase of non-white residents in the area. Loudoun County, where I now live, is a prime example (many of my neighbors are ethnically South Asian or East Asian). Since non-whites tend to trend Democrat in voting, this has raised a concern among some Republicans that the region will increasingly vote Democrat.

However, the latest report from the Census Bureau that ethnic minorities have relatively high home ownership rates in metropolitan Washington area, including Northern Virginia, ought to give them a ray of hope:

Particularly striking was the growing number of Hispanics who bought homes in the Washington area from 2000 to 2005, many of them settling in expensive suburbs such as Fairfax and Montgomery. Across the region, Hispanics surpassed blacks in homeownership rates last year. [Snip]

Almost 100,000 Asians own houses, condominiums and townhouses locally, triple the number in 1990. Homeownership among Asians increased about 71 percent regionwide between 2000 and 2005. Asians posted particularly high rates in Loudoun County, where about 96 percent owned their homes last year. That’s far above Asians’ national rate of 59 percent.

Farhan Syed, a real estate broker in Loudoun, knows this phenomenon well. “Most Asians happen to be dual-income families, well-educated, able to afford a home,” he said. “Everyone wants the American dream.”

While home ownership does not guarantee voting Republican, increased home ownership correlates well with more Republican voting. Those who own homes are more likely to be married, have children and vote Republican than those who do not (see the last two pages of this study). In fact, the trend is even stronger at higher home value ranges.

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Some Democrats are apparently hopeful that Northern Virginia is becoming more “creative class,” which supposedly translates to more votes for the political Left:

But there is a third, critical factor working against the Republicans that is unique to Northern Virginia, and that is the marked demographic shift in the region credited with providing Democratic Gov. Tim Kaine with almost his entire margin of victory in his statewide gubernatorial race last November.

Not only did Kaine carry all areas of the region, including the more outlying Loudoun and Prince William counties, but Democrats

The results were, in part, attributed to the rise of the high tech, government contracts industry in the region, creating the fastest-growing job creation numbers in the nation in the last three years. While the boom is the result of the Bush administration’s war on terror and related initiatives, it is ironically adding to a voter base in the region that overall is anything but supportive of Bush and especially conservative GOP politicians.

This “new demographic” corresponds to what George Mason University’s Dr. Richard Florida calls the “Creative Class,” composed of well-educated, pragmatic, younger scientifically-based folk ranging from engineers to artisans who are critical thinkers and, above all, believe in fairness and equal justice.

Gee, apparently “better looking,” “taller,” “thinner,” “healthier,” “more stylish” and “affluent” were left out. This is a set of ridiculously subjective (or dare I say, unscientific) descriptives smashed together to make the Left’s ideal vision of itself look hip and noble at the same time.

Nonetheless, I will go along with at least this much: Northern Virginia’s demographics have changed substantially in the last several years, as can be expected given the enormous population and job growth, particularly in the exurban (as opposed to closer-in D.C. suburban) parts of the region. And, indeed, this shift will pose challenges to both Republican and Democrat incumbents and their entrenched powerbrokers.

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