This says it all:

This year, Webb beat Allen by 116,000 votes and 17 points in the region. About half of that margin came from Fairfax County, the state’s biggest place and an important symbol of the change in the state’s politics.

“Fairfax used to be the bellwether for the state,” Brodnitz said. “Now it’s considered a critical piece of the Democratic map.”

And should the exurbs around Fairfax go decisively for the Democrats in future elections (Webb carried Loudoun 50-49 and Prince William 51-48), the GOP will become less and less competitive. Now is the time for rainbow conservatism and stem the Democratic tide in the exurbs that are growing in money and votes.

There are too many reports of conservatives acquiescing in a 2006 Congressional defeat, perhaps escaping into their fantasy that Republicans will somehow be “punished” for straying from historic principles, and that a consequently “cleansed” party can return to power easily in 2008.

Theirs is a perilous path to follow. Jim Geraghty in National Review Online addressed this line of thought last May:

“Your effort to re-conservativize the Republican Party in Washington by staying home this year will have the effect of massacring the actual conservatives and empowering the moderates who you disdain. Perhaps we can call this counterproductive maneuver ‘RINO-plasty.’

But that’s okay, the staying-at-home-conservatives insist. The GOP will win back the House and Senate in 2008, establishing a true conservative majority.”

Geraghty explained:

“. . . [w]hat kind of lengths do you think the Democrats will go to in order to keep power once they’ve got it? Does the “Fairness Doctrine” ring a bell? You think Pelosi and Reid wouldn’t try that tactic to hinder conservative talk radio? How about McCain-Feingold 2.0, with a particular focus on controlling “unregulated speech” on the Internet and blogs?”

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As I often repeat, Northern Virginia has experienced a tremendous demographic growth, particularly in the outer suburbs and the exurbs. An accompanying trend has been an increase of non-white residents in the area. Loudoun County, where I now live, is a prime example (many of my neighbors are ethnically South Asian or East Asian). Since non-whites tend to trend Democrat in voting, this has raised a concern among some Republicans that the region will increasingly vote Democrat.

However, the latest report from the Census Bureau that ethnic minorities have relatively high home ownership rates in metropolitan Washington area, including Northern Virginia, ought to give them a ray of hope:

Particularly striking was the growing number of Hispanics who bought homes in the Washington area from 2000 to 2005, many of them settling in expensive suburbs such as Fairfax and Montgomery. Across the region, Hispanics surpassed blacks in homeownership rates last year. [Snip]

Almost 100,000 Asians own houses, condominiums and townhouses locally, triple the number in 1990. Homeownership among Asians increased about 71 percent regionwide between 2000 and 2005. Asians posted particularly high rates in Loudoun County, where about 96 percent owned their homes last year. That’s far above Asians’ national rate of 59 percent.

Farhan Syed, a real estate broker in Loudoun, knows this phenomenon well. “Most Asians happen to be dual-income families, well-educated, able to afford a home,” he said. “Everyone wants the American dream.”

While home ownership does not guarantee voting Republican, increased home ownership correlates well with more Republican voting. Those who own homes are more likely to be married, have children and vote Republican than those who do not (see the last two pages of this study). In fact, the trend is even stronger at higher home value ranges.

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One view of the Allen-Webb contest has it that perceived racial or sexual insensitivities won’t matter, but Bush’s standing in Virginia and the Allen-Webb fundraising gap will (h/t RCP):

Far more telling in the end, I’d wager, will be two other factors: President Bush’s popularity on Election Day and whether or not Allen maintains his current, enormous fundraising advantage over challenger Jim Webb. That’s where the numbers come in.

If Bush’s popularity and that of the war in Iraq are tanking on Nov. 7, then the combination offers Webb, a former Navy secretary and highly decorated Marine, his best - perhaps only - hope of an upset victory. [Snip]

Webb’s prospects shrink dramatically if Allen maintains anything close to his summer fundraising advantage. At the last accounting a couple of months back, Allen had $6 million in the bank, compared to Webb’s $424,000.

While I agree that these two factors matter a great deal, I disagree that these are the two most important factors in the contest.

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